New Seat Details - Finchley and Enfield Southgate

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Finchley and Enfield Southgate been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	28,151	50.3%
CON	23,760	42.5%
LIB	2,761	4.9%
Green	1,075	1.9%
UKIP	180	0.3%
LAB Majority	4,391	7.9%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Finchley and Enfield Southgate: Map

List of old seats forming part of Finchley and Enfield Southgate

Old seat: Chipping Barnet

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chipping Barnet, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Chipping Barnet				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Barnet	Brunswick Park	10,823	Chipping Barnet; Finchley and Enfield Southgate	3,614	3,962	380	0	152	0	0	0	8,108
Barnet	Coppetts	9,989	Finchley and Enfield Southgate	3,087	4,734	434	0	243	0	0	0	8,498
Barnet	East Barnet	10,684	Chipping Barnet	3,543	3,900	343	0	205	0	0	0	7,991
Barnet	High Barnet	10,508	Chipping Barnet	3,769	2,850	745	0	216	0	0	0	7,580
Barnet	Oakleigh	10,637	Chipping Barnet	4,236	3,034	367	0	196	0	0	0	7,833
Barnet	Totteridge	9,302	Chipping Barnet	4,239	2,695	395	0	186	0	0	0	7,515
Barnet	Underhill	10,537	Chipping Barnet	3,190	4,150	348	0	209	0	0	0	7,897
	Total	72,480		25,678	25,325	3,012	0	1,407	0	0	0	55,422

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chipping Barnet seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Enfield Southgate

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Enfield Southgate, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Enfield Southgate				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Enfield	Bowes	7,796	Hornsey	1,846	4,740	246	0	129	0	0	0	6,961
Enfield	Cockfosters	9,532	Finchley and Enfield Southgate	3,753	2,820	198	0	89	0	0	0	6,860
Enfield	Grange	9,321	Enfield	3,506	2,455	248	0	97	0	0	0	6,306
Enfield	Palmers Green	9,154	Edmonton	2,386	4,717	302	0	120	0	0	0	7,525
Enfield	Southgate	9,178	Finchley and Enfield Southgate	3,178	3,525	341	0	115	0	0	0	7,159
Enfield	Southgate Green	8,805	Finchley and Enfield Southgate	2,830	3,611	273	0	111	0	0	0	6,825
Enfield	Winchmore Hill	9,129	Finchley and Enfield Southgate	3,134	3,121	316	0	119	0	0	0	6,690
	Total	62,915		20,633	24,989	1,924	0	780	0	0	0	48,326

The full details of these calculations are given on the Enfield Southgate seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Finchley and Golders Green

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Finchley and Golders Green, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Finchley and Golders Green				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Barnet	Childs Hill	9,607	Hampstead	3,770	3,823	912	55	144	0	0	0	8,704
Barnet	East Finchley	9,748	Finchley and Enfield Southgate	2,362	3,841	530	48	156	0	0	0	6,937
Barnet	Finchley Church End	9,733	Chipping Barnet	3,836	2,439	378	78	100	0	0	0	6,831
Barnet	Garden Suburb	9,457	Hampstead	4,142	2,178	437	19	114	0	0	0	6,890
Barnet	Golders Green	8,901	Hendon	4,582	3,096	341	29	124	0	0	0	8,172
Barnet	West Finchley	8,794	Chipping Barnet	2,853	3,656	443	102	138	0	0	0	7,192
Barnet	Woodhouse	10,391	Finchley and Enfield Southgate	3,054	3,909	421	132	143	0	0	0	7,659
	Total	66,631		24,599	22,942	3,462	463	919	0	0	0	52,385

The full details of these calculations are given on the Finchley and Golders Green seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Finchley and Enfield Southgate

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Finchley and Enfield Southgate
Barnet	Brunswick Park	7,365	Chipping Barnet	2,362	2,590	248	0	99	0	0	0	5,299
Barnet	Coppetts	11,811	Chipping Barnet	3,087	4,734	434	0	243	0	0	0	8,498
Barnet	East Finchley	9,687	Finchley and Golders Green	2,362	3,841	530	48	156	0	0	0	6,937
Barnet	Woodhouse	10,693	Finchley and Golders Green	3,054	3,909	421	132	143	0	0	0	7,659
Enfield	Cockfosters	9,246	Enfield Southgate	3,753	2,820	198	0	89	0	0	0	6,860
Enfield	Southgate	9,650	Enfield Southgate	3,178	3,525	341	0	115	0	0	0	7,159
Enfield	Southgate Green	9,199	Enfield Southgate	2,830	3,611	273	0	111	0	0	0	6,825
Enfield	Winchmore Hill	9,018	Enfield Southgate	3,134	3,121	316	0	119	0	0	0	6,690
	Total	76,669		23,760	28,151	2,761	180	1,075	0	0	0	55,927

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Finchley and Enfield Southgate. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Bambos Charalambous (LAB)
County/Area:	Barnet (London)
Electorate:	76,669
Turnout:	72.9%

Finchley and Enfield Southgate: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Finchley and Enfield Southgate: Overview

Introduction